voting behaviour and the media

Question 1

psephology

Answer 1

the study of voting behaviour, elections and trends called psephology

Question 2

partisan dealignment

Answer 2

people leaving the main two parties

Question 3

what are long term influences on voter behaviour

Answer 3

social factors impacting voter behaviour over a number of elections e.g. class gender age religion ethnicity education

Question 4

explain historical voting behaviour

Answer 4

Until 1970, Con & Lab averaged 91% of the vote.
By 2010, Con & Lab received only 57%.
2019 this rebounded to 76% again.

Voter Turnout
Falling since mid 20th century. 59% in 2001 but rebounded to mid/high 60’s since 2010.

Partisan dealignment since 1970’s. Falling Turnout.

Question 5

long term influences on voter behaviour

Answer 5

Social factors that impact voter behaviour over a number of elections.
E.g. Class, Gender, Age, Religion, Ethnicity, Education

Question 6

short term influences on voter behaviour

Answer 6

Short-term influences: Specific to particular elections.
E.g. Party Leader, Wider Context, Campaign

Question 7

explain link between ethnicity and voter behaviour

Answer 7

Mass immigration in the 1950s meant more ethnic minorities migrated to inner cities. Fearing loss of ‘culture’, Conservative party became more antagonistic on immigration.

Smethwick (1964) Conservative Party’s infamous racist campaign. (Right)

Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood speech’

e.g. Norman Tebbit MP
Criticised South Asians (Pakistani, Indian, Bangladeshi for not being loyal to the country.
- Measured loyalty by support for England national cricket team

Question 8

anomalies in the trends of ethnicity and voter behaviour ? (evaluation)

Answer 8

Ethnic Minorities are not a monolith.

Some ethnic groups are starting to move away from the labour party.

Aspire party (Tower Hamlets 2022 Local Elections) - Bangladeshi
Conservative Party (Harrow 2022 Local Elections) - (Affluent) Indian community.
Conservative Party (2017 GE) Jewish Community voted 67% tory.

Question 9

explain link between regions and voter behaviour

Answer 9

Different geographical regions tend to have loyalties to different parties.

This can be seen through the urban/rural divide and north/south divide.

Question 10

explain link between age and voter behaviour

Answer 10

older age ranges tend to vote more for conservatives
examples.
2019 general election- 67 percent voting conservatives
higher voter turnout with age as well- for age range of 70+, 84 percent voted

younger age range - 18 to 24 year olds, 56% voting labour
voter turnout for 18-19 year olds is 57 percent

Question 11

link between religion and voter behaviour

Answer 11

In 2015, Labour received 74% of votes from British Muslims – in 2017, this had risen to 87%.

Jewish community turned to conservatives in 2017.
(controversy surrounding alleged anti semitism?)

Question 12

link between education and voter behaviour

Answer 12

those with degrees and above, 43% voting labour and 29% voting tory

those with GCSE or below- 25% voting labour, 58% voting conservatives

Question 13

short term factors affecting voter behaviour

Answer 13

Short term factors increase electoral volatility, making it harder to predict outcomes of elections

Question 14

explain how rational choice theory is a short term factor on voter behaviour

Answer 14

Voters act like individual consumers, choosing the most suitable product on offer. Voters consider how they would be affected by having different parties in government, and make their decision based on who will benefit them and their families. Therefore, successful parties able to adapt their policies to ones that are popular with most of the electorate.
Example, Thatcher changed the conservative party’s policy for the 1979 election, as did Blair from New Labour in 1997.
Rational choice theory combines issue voting and valence (trust), which may be seen as a more accurate way of analysing voting behaviour.

Question 15

how is the voter positioned in the rational choice model

Answer 15

Voters are rational and will vote based on whichever party benefits them the most.
Presumptions about voter. Individuals are comparable to consumers.
Rational
Largely unaligned
Use Manifestos, Party Leaders, Campaign and Past Performance to inform their decision

Question 16

explain how valence is a short term factor on voter behaviour

Answer 16

Valence is the idea that people support the party best able to deliver on issues they care about. So, valence suggests that voters aren’t solely concerned with policies, but also on how much they trust a party to deliver those policies. This might be summed up with three questions: Which party do I trust?, Which party has been or will be most competent in government?
In 2017, many voters questioned whether the Labour Party could deliver economic prosperity, even though they liked their policies of abolishing tuition fees, re nationalising industries and giving the NHS more funding.

Question 17

what is valence/ trust

Answer 17

Valence issues are issues where there is universal agreement on an objective.

E.g. Better health care, less crime, economic growth.

Therefore, what is important in deciding how someone votes is ‘trust’ in delivering.

example- Currently people may not trust the tories to reduce immigration as they haven’t done so in 14 years.

Question 18

what is issue voting as a short term factor on voter behaviour

Answer 18

Voters make decisions on a range of issues by going through several stages

Issue voting is problematic as it relies on a higher level of political engagement from voters. It is also not particularly good in explaining voting patterns. For example, in 1987 and 1992, voters preferred labours policies but conservatives won the elections

Question 19

explain what positional issues are in issue voting

Answer 19

Divisive issues that people can take different, but legitimate, views on.
Should taxes be increased?
Should welfare be cut?
Is this war justified?
Do people need to be charged for missing GP appointments?
Electorate will seek a party that matches their views.

Question 20

What are Salient issues?

Answer 20

Salient issues are the most important issues that arise during an election.

(Economy, Healthcare, Immigration, Education, Position on Europe)

Question 21

What were the salient issues at these elections?
2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019

Answer 21

2005 - Iraq War
2010 - Economy
2015 - Immigration/European Union
2017 - Brexit and Terrorism (Manchester & London)
2019 - Brexit

Question 22

Identifying Salient issues
how does one identify a salient issue

Answer 22

Butler & Stokes identify 4 conditions of salient issues:

Voters must be aware of an issue
Voters must have an active opinion on an issue
Voters must identify a difference between the parties policy on the issue
Voters must be motivated enough to turnout and vote for a party based on the issue.

Question 23

examples of current salient issues

Answer 23

Cost of living, Israel-Palestine, Immigration, NHS waiting times, housing and employment.

Question 24

influence of party leaders on voter behaviour

Answer 24

The charisma and personality of party leaders is now crucial to a party success. They are the brand of their party and are often put in good positions for photo opportunities. For example, in 1997 the young, energetic, family man Blair was seen in stark contrast to Major.

The 2010 televised debates reinforced this view when leaders tried to avoid saying anything controversial, and began to look less human. Voters started to trust them less, being unable to identify with them. Voters seemed willing to vote for an authentic character who would tell the truth in a language they understood, almost irrespective of the policies they stood for.

Question 25

examples of issue voting

Answer 25

2019 election case study: Issue voting.

Question 26

Brexit & Labour Failures in 2019

Answer 26

Why did Labour do poorly in the 2019 election?
Were inconsistent in their view on brexit.

Leaver voters Supported Tories ‘Get Brexit Done’
Remain voters Supported Liberal Democrats ‘Revoke article 50’

Question 27

problems with issue voting

Answer 27

Issue voting is problematic as it relies on a higher level of political engagement from voters. It is also not particularly good in explaining voting patterns. For example, in 1987 and 1992, voters preferred Labours policies but Conservatives won the elections.

Question 28

what is an electoral asset

Answer 28

A leader with a strong strength/charisma can attract potential voters

Question 29

what is electoral liability

Answer 29

A boring, weird, or divisive leader can put voters off

Question 30

failure of party leaders- case study, Ed Miliband
2010 to 2015

Answer 30

Viewed as weird, weak and unable to control ‘Blairite’ faction of his party.
Evidence:
Sun headline ‘Save Our Bacon’
During Interview W/ Jeremy Paxman, he was ridiculed for saying ‘Hell yeah, I’m tough enough’
Failure with Voters:
Loss to David Cameron in 2015 (232 Seats)

Question 31

case study- Boris Johnson

Answer 31

Viewed as charismatic and relatable.
‘Sunny Politics’
Evidence:
London Zip-Wire Incident in 2012
‘Get Brexit Done’ - Seen as trustworthy.
Success with Voters:
Won 80 seat majority (365 seats) in 2019 GE

Question 32

what is governing competency

Answer 32

Governing competency is an assessment of how effective a party’s been in government.
Control of events: Major’s government lost power in 1997 when voters felt they were stumbling from one crisis to another and seemed unable to control events.
Policy: The Thatcher government from 1997 to 1990, stuck firmly to its promises to change the economic model and was rewarded with electoral success.
Party unity, strong leadership: the Labour Party under Blair from 1994 to 2007 is an example of how voters rewarded the party who had a clear vision and a united party.

Question 33

how is governing competency measured

Answer 33

assessed of how effective a party’s been in government
- assessed by control of events: major’s government lost power in 1997 when voters felt they were stumbling from one crisis to another ans seemed unable to control events
- policy- the thatcher government from 1997 to 1992 - stuck firmly to its promises to change the economic model and was rewarded with electoral success
- party unity, strong leadership- the labour party under blair from 1984 to 2007 is an example of how voters rewarded the party who had a clear vision and a united party

Question 34

case studies of governance competency

Answer 34

control of events 1982 Falklands war and how it led to thatcher landslide victory in 1983

party unity 2019- labour party divided under corbyn

Question 35

what is economic management

Answer 35

voters more likely to support a partyif it has managed the economy successfully while in government/ thought it is likely to be able to deliver economic prosperity
voters less likely to support a governing party which has mismanaged the economy
e.g. winter discontent in 1978 played a key role in Thatcher’s Victory in 1979. In 2010, the Conservatives were able to blame Labour under Brown for the 2008 financial crisis. Truss’ financial chaos in 2022.

Question 36

case studies on economic management

Answer 36

winter of discontent 1978 - how it lef to thatcher victory in 1979

black wednesday / ERM 1992 - how it led to the major defeat in 1997

Question 37

voting context model

Answer 37

Voting behavior changes based on:

Type of election
Electoral System used
Wider Context/Circumstances around the election.

How someone votes in a local election may differ to how they vote in national election or By-elections.

Question 38

what are the different types of elections

Answer 38

General Election: Economy, Global Affairs
By-election: Protest vote against government
Local Election: Local issues
Regional Election: TFL

Question 39

Case Study: Rochester & Strood

By election in 2014

Answer 39

By-election in 2014
Conservatives won the seat in 2010 with MP Mark Reckless. Defected and joined UKIP in 2014 triggering a by-election.

He won the by-election in what was seen as a protest vote against the coalition government over Immigration/EU.

Six months later in the 2015 General election the Conservatives won it back from UKIP suggesting the context is important.

Question 40

why are general elections more different from by elections

Answer 40

In General Elections:
Electorate is concerned with government formation.
Electorate is concerned with multiple issues (e.g. economy)

Question 41

what are different types of electoral systems

Answer 41

Proportional systems = Electorate is likely to vote with their conscience.

Plurality/Majoritarian systems = More likely to see tactical voting.

example: Brexit party came first in proportional EU election but won 0 seats in a plurality FPTP general election.

E.g. Brexit Party (2019 EU vs UK elections)

Question 42

what were the 1979 election results

Answer 42

Margaret Thatcher won the 1979 Election on a turnout of 76% over Labour leader James Callaghan.

Labour won 269 seats under Callaghan.
Conservatives won 339 seats under Thatcher.
Liberals won 11 under David Steele.

Question 43

Why did the Conservatives win in 1979?

Answer 43

• Leadership of Thatcher
• Economy: Inflation and Unemployment
• Winter of Discontent
• Advertising/Media
• Callaghan’s Miscalculations
• Conservative Policies

Question 44

what affects the outcome of parties

Answer 44

Sociological Model: long term influences
Social Class

Rational Choice Model:
Image of Party Leaders
Valence/Competency
Influence of Media

Voter Context Model:
Wider Economic Conditions

Question 45

what was the winter of discontent and why did it occur

Answer 45

he ‘Winter of Discontent’ was an economic downturn that occurred in the winter of 1978/1979.

High Unemployment
Low Economic Growth
(stagflation)
High Inflation (Opec Oil Embargo)

Resulted in Mass Public Sector strikes

Question 46

examples of the effect of media and party leaders during political crisises
e.g. for thatcher- how did thatcher gather support

Answer 46

Portrayed Callaghan as a weak and out of touch leader. With Famous newspaper headline ‘Crisis? What Crisis?’

Conservatives hired Saatchi and Saatchi Advertising Company who ‘Softened’ Thatchers image and highlighted Labour’s poor policies.

Thatcher offered Tax cuts
Limit Gov Spending (Welfare Support)= social class

Question 47

1997 - what factors caused Blair’s success

Answer 47

Sociological Model:
Social Class, Age

Rational Choice Model:
Image of Party Leaders
Party Manifesto’s
Influence of Media
Party Unity & Competency
Voter Context Model:
Tory Sleaze

Question 48

1997- how did blair have a weak opposition

Answer 48

Economic incompetence: Black Wednesday: In 1992 the UK was forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, damaging the Conservative’s reputation for economic competence. Despite some recovery from this they weren’t able to shake this newly won reputation.

Party division: Major’s government was split over Europe, which made Major appear weak and the party divided.

Credibility: The party was mired in a Cash for Questions scandal and Tory ‘sleaze.’
Time’s up: They had been in power for 18 years, Blair carried the slogan ‘Time for a change’.

Question 49

why was john major disadvantaged in 1997

Answer 49

Major signed upto Maastricht Treaty committing to a more federal Europe. This caused division as large parts of the Conservative party were eurosceptic.

Economic Chaos of Black Wednesday heightened tensions.

Question 50

1997 back to basics speech

Answer 50

Britain having a ‘Moral’ Panic over changing social norms led to Major giving ‘Back to Basics’ speech on religion/morality.

E.g. John Redwood MP condemned “young women [who] have babies with no apparent intention of even trying marriage or a relationship with the father of the child”
However the string of scandals that followed was seen as highly hypocritical.

Question 51

conservative scandals disadvantaging them in 1997 election

Answer 51

1992) David Mellor resigned in September following a series of allegations of sleaze. He engaged in extramarital affairs with actress Antonia de Sancha and accepted free holidays from Palestine Liberation and the ruler of Abu Dhabi.

(1993) Environment Minister Tim Yeo resigned after fathering a “love child” with Conservative councillor Julia Stent. Yeo had previously voiced his support for the traditions of marriage.

(1992) Alan Amos MP was arrested and cautioned for alleged public indecency on Hampstead Heath after being found with another man.

(1994) David Ashby MP was accused by his wife of leaving her for a man. The couple’s marriage had broken down, but his alleged homosexuality/infidelity made the news.

Question 52

how did conservatives react during 1997 election through media

Answer 52

Conservatives once again hired the advertising company Saatchi & Saatchi.

Ran a negative advertising campaign replacing tony blair’s eyes with demon eyes.

Party Broadcast presented New Labour as a New Danger.

Question 53

how did the media support tony blair

Answer 53

Labour courted the support of Rupert Murdoch (Owner of several newspapers etc. The Sun & The Times).

Used Spin Doctors to manipulate media reporting and ensure that stories that broke made the party look favourable.
‘Alastair Campbell’

Question 54

1997 labour party manifesto points

Answer 54

Education will be our number one priority, and we will increase the share of national income spent on education as we decrease it on the bills of economic and social failure
There will be no increase in the basic or top rates of income tax
We will provide stable economic growth with low inflation, and promote dynamic and competitive business and industry at home and abroad
We will get 250,000 young unemployed off benefit and into work
We will rebuild the NHS, reducing spending on administration and increasing spending on patient care
We will be tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime, and halve the time it takes persistent juvenile offenders to come to court
We will help build strong families and strong communities, and lay the foundations of a modern welfare state in pensions and community care
We will safeguard our environment, and develop an integrated transport policy to fight congestion and pollution
We will clean up politics, decentralise political power throughout the United Kingdom and put the funding of political parties on a proper and accountable basis
We will give Britain the leadership in Europe which Britain and Europe need.

Question 55

what sociological shifts were seen during the 1997 election

Answer 55

The Labour share of the AB vote increased by 12% and Conservatives went down by 15%, suggesting greater evidence of class and partisan dealignment.
There was a larger swing to Labour amongst women (10%).
Conservatives lost 16% of the 45–54 age bracket.
It was especially surprising was that Labour did very well in the South, particularly in London and the South East.

Question 56

what was the conservative manifesto in 2019

Answer 56

Extra funding for the NHS, with 50,000 more nurses and 50 million more GP surgery appointments a year.
20,000 more police and tougher sentencing for criminals.
An Australian-style points-based system to control immigration.
Millions more invested every week in science, schools, apprenticeships and infrastructure while controlling debt.
Reaching Net Zero by 2050 with investment in clean energy solutions and green infrastructure to reduce carbon emissions and pollution.
We will not raise the rate of income tax, VAT or National Insurance.
Getting Brexit done. Investing in our public services and infrastructure. Supporting workers and families. Strengthening the Union. Unleashing Britain’s potential.

Question 57

what were the 2019 election results

Answer 57

Boris Johnson won the 2019 Election on a turnout of 67% over Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Conservatives won 365 seats under Johnson.
Labour won 202 seats under Corbyn.
SNP won 48 under Sturgeon.

Question 58

Why did Conservatives win in 2019?

Answer 58

Sociological Model:
Region, Class

Rational Choice Model:
Image of Party Leaders
Influence of Media
Campaign

Voter Context Model:
Brexit

Question 59

explain campaigning in the 2019 election

Answer 59

The Conservative campaign, led by Dominic Cummings, was tightly controlled with the ‘Get Brexit Done’ message at its heart.
The campaign also focused on the idea of ‘the people versus the establishment’, with Johnson railing against Parliament and the Supreme Court ruling as examples of the establishment ignoring the will of the people.

Question 60

weakness of labour

Answer 60

it was an indecisive opposition ‘sat on the fence’ , discredited as their manifesto was seen as unrealistic as they kept changing it and they were not keeping to their word, therefore more distrust in labour’s ability to carry out manifesto plans

association to factions of party from before- anti-semitism,

Question 61

influence of leadership and media in the 2019 election

Answer 61

A YouGov poll of former Labour supporters showed that 35% turned their back on Labour because of Corbyn while only 19% cited Brexit.

While he was still popular with his devoted supporters, Corbyn’s image had been tarnished due to weak leadership over Brexit and the allegations of anti-Semitism.

While Johnson was not universally liked or trusted, his leadership and political message were strong.

Question 62

social media during the 2019 election

Answer 62

2017 showed the power of social media, but 2019 made us think again. Regular consumers of social media platforms were left with the feeling that by 12 December 2019 Corbyn might well steal the election.

The result came as a stark reminder that one’s social media feed is not representative of the country as a whole.

The Conservatives used focus groups and polling to target swing voters and spent heavily on Facebook activity during the last week of the campaign, targeting marginal seats specifically.

Question 63

explain the salient issue of brexit in the 2019 election

Answer 63

Like 2017, this election was about ‘Getting Brexit Done’. Johnson was relentless in pushing this slogan throughout the campaign and appeared to read the British voters better than the other parties.
Unsurprisingly therefore, the Conservatives had a clear lead amongst Leave voters with a 73% to 15% lead over Labour.
However, Remain voters were more split with just under half (48%) voting Labour, 21% voting Liberal Democrat and 20% voting for the Conservatives.

Question 64

explain the sociological shifts during the 2019 election

Answer 64

Class and party dealignment continued, with the Conservatives even further ahead in social classes C2DE than in 2017, while Labour lost votes amongst all social classes.

The Conservatives’ breaching of Labour’s ‘red wall’ was the headline of the election. The ‘red wall’ stretches from the borders of north Wales to northeast England and Yorkshire, and down into the north Midlands. The Conservatives won 33 of the 63 seats in this area, with Blyth Valley electing a Conservative for the first time in its 69-year history.

Question 65

give examples of the different types of media

Answer 65

The Press: Newspaper & Magazine publications
Broadcasters: TV, Radio, Podcasts
Social Media: Twitter, Youtube, Facebook, TikTok
The media is of vital importance as it brings issues to the public’s attention.

Question 66

explain the effect of newspapers

Answer 66

Are the most traditional form of media.

Until recently, they were the most important and powerful form of political media.

No regulation of political bias
Newspapers and Magazines are clear to take an ‘editorial stance’
Murdoch (Sun & the Times)
Lebedev (The i, Independent)
Readership of Newspapers is in decline.

Question 67

what are ofcom rules

Answer 67

Coverage of parties during the election period must be fair and appropriate.
All discussion and analysis of election and referendum issues must finish when the poll opens.
Broadcasters must wait until polls close on polling day before they publish the results of opinion polls.
A list of all candidates must be included in any constituency discussions.

Question 67

effect of tv

Answer 67

Broadcasting

Term covers all television and radio stations. (Sky, BBC, ITV, LBC)
There are strict laws governing political broadcasting on TV and radio to ensure fair representation of all parties.

Dominates political debate with huge coverage during election campaigns, as well as daily and weekly current affairs shows. In 2010, the election leaders debate was watched by just under 10 million viewers.

Question 68

effects of social media

Answer 68

Is the newest and arguably most powerful media platform. It has begun to play a huge role in politics both in the UK and in the USA.

Very recent phenomena and so it is too early to truly tell the impact.

No regulation of political bias.

Parties increasingly advertise on twitter, instagram.

Echo chambers can form.
Links to Digital Democracy
Links to Hyper Pluralism

Question 69

what is the social media count

Answer 69

In the UK, 28% of young people cited social media as their main news source, compared with 24% for TV.

Facebook has been criticized for not taking its role as a media platform seriously enough, with Amber Rudd, the then Home Secretary, suggesting they should be treated the same as publishing companies.

Question 70

what are opinion polls

Answer 70

Opinion polls assess the popularity of political parties by asking a sample of people how they intend to vote. Public opinion polls are now a key part of our electoral experience, but the main political parties also conduct their own private polls.

Opinions polls have come under criticism for getting their predictions spectacularly wrong. For example, in 2017 May was expected to get a majority of around 50+. Still, opinion polls are widely read and valued.

Exit polls seem to be the most accurate opinion polls. John Curtice’s exit polls are legendary in their ability to successfully predict the outcome of elections, usually within a handful of seats.

Question 71

how is media in politics discussed

Answer 71

Three ways we think about the media in this course:
How the media affects elections
How it holds government to account
How it impacts democracy

Question 72

explain media in 2010 general election

Answer 72

Parliamentary expenses scandal: Investigative Journalists for the Telegraph in 2009/2010 found that MPs were abusing the expenses system.
Many claimed expenses that were ridiculous or ‘immoral’.

e.g. gillian vs gordon brown

Question 73

explain media in 2015 general election

Answer 73

Significant amount of TV coverage over what another coalition would look like.

Never before done, ‘the Daily Telegraph used its marketing database to e-mail all of its readers to ask them to vote Conservative on the morning of the election.’

‘Extensive discussion in the media of the constitutional implications of a possible Labour–SNP coalition and front pages such as that of the Daily Mail on 6 May, which warned that such an arrangement would ‘destroy our economy — and our very nation’ certainly helped to bolster Conservative support.’

Question 74

media in 2017 general election

Answer 74

On the night before the 2017 general election, the Daily Mail published a front page with the headline ‘Corbin’ and attacked Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party, imploring voters not to vote Labour.

In 2017, Theresa May refusing to take part in a head on head TV debate with Corbyn made her look weak in the eyes of voters and contributed to her unpopularity.

Question 75

media in 2019 general election

Answer 75

The media can also be important in setting the agenda of elections, such as “the Brexit election” in 2019.
In 2019, significant viral events were Jacob Rees Mogg’s comments on the Grenfell fire which were condemned by many alongside coverage of a boy with pneumonia who had to sleep on the floor of a hospital.
In 2019, Johnson refused to be interviewed by Andrew Neil, fearing the impact a mishap could have on the campaign.
Newspaper hostility towards Corbyn’s Labour was particularly hostile in the 2019 GE.

Question 76

what was the canary

Answer 76

The Canary is an online blog which publishes pieces that spread more widely than mainstream media and pay their writers partly based on their click numbers.
In the early weeks of the 2017 election campaign, the Canary was one of the most popular news sources on Facebook, at times drawing in number comparable to the BBC and national newspapers to some of its stories.
Kerry-Anne Mendoza, editor of the Canary, is a big supporter of Corbyn

Question 77

is the role of the media exaggerated?

Answer 77

Many have strong allegiances to parties and are highly unlikely to be swayed by anything the media does during elections. For example YouGov polling revealed that 30% of Sun readers and 39% of FT readers voted for the Labour Party in the 2017 election, despite both papers backing the Tories.

Most individuals consume the media and political opinions they already agree with, especially true of social media.

Other short term factors that influence elections more e.g. perception of leadership - ‘A YouGov poll of Labour voters who deserted the party in 2019 indicated that Corbyn’s leadership was the main reason for 35% of them, compared to 19% who cited Brexit. A further 16% felt that Labour’s plans for public spending and nationalisation were undeliverable and too costly.’

Other long term factors are more significant e.g. class voting