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U.S Politics (OB) > The Electoral Process And Direct Democracy > Flashcards

The Electoral Process And Direct Democracy Flashcards

1
Q

Define electoral college

A

Institution established by founding fathers

Indirectly elect president

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2
Q

Who usually wins the electoral college votes

A

Candidate who wins the popular vote

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3
Q

Give an example of when a candidate who won the popular vote didn’t win the the electoral college vote

A

Hillary Clinton 2016 won popular vote by 3 million
Trump won electoral college (304)
Hillary (227)

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4
Q

How many votes did Clinton win in 2016

A

65,800,000+

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5
Q

How many votes did Trump win in 2016

A

62,900,000+

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6
Q

How are electoral votes distributed

A

Every state gets 2 votes reflecting no. Of congress members of each state
Plus no. Of representatives

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7
Q

How many electoral college votes does California have

A

55 (2+53)

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8
Q

How many electoral college votes does Wyoming have

A

3

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9
Q

How many electoral college votes are there in total

A

538

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10
Q

How many electoral college votes does a candidate need to secure to win presidency

A

270

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11
Q

How are electoral college votes distributed amongst candidates

A

Candidate which wins popular votes gets all electoral college votes for that state

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12
Q

Which two states don’t use a ‘winner takes all’ system for electoral college votes

A

Maine and Nebraska

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13
Q

Why do Maine and Nebraska not have to follow the winner takes all rule with electoral college votes

A

It’s only a ‘rule’
Not in the constitution
Convention that developed in 19th century

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14
Q

When do electors (members of electoral college) meet in their state capital

A

The Monday after the second Wednesday in December

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15
Q

Who counts the electoral college votes

A

Vice President

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16
Q

Who had to announce their own defeat as Vice President

A

Al Gore
6th January 2001
Lost by 271 to 266 (George W Bush Texas)

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17
Q

What year was there nearly a 269-269 split of electoral college votes

A

2000

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18
Q

How would the president get chosen if there a split in electoral college votes

A

President elected by House
Between 3 candidates wi most electoral college votes
Each state 1 vote
Need 26/50 votes

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19
Q

How would the Vice President get chosen if there was a split in electoral college votes

A

Senate from two candidates with most electoral college votes
Each senator gets vote
Winner 51/100 votes

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20
Q

Which two years have the electoral college failed to come up with a winner

A

1800 and 1824

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21
Q

What are the strengths of the electoral college

A

Preserves voice of small population states

Promotes two horse race

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22
Q

What are the weaknesses of the electoral college

A 
Small states over rep
Winner takes all distorts 
Unfair to 3rd parties 
Rogue electors 
Vice and pres from different parties
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23
Q

How does the electoral college preserve the voice of small population states

A

Secured them at least three electoral college votes

Votes aren’t lost in the popular vote along due to big states

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24
Q

In 1788 how many electoral college votes did the smallest and largest populated states have

A

3 and 12

4 times greater

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25
Q

In 2016 how many more electoral college votes does California get compared to Wyoming

A

18X more

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26
Q

Why does the electoral college promote a two horse race

A

Winner takes all votes

26 of 39 elections 1864-2016 the winner gained more than 50% of popular vote

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27
Q

How many people does each elector represent in Wyoming and California

A

Cal- 713,000 people
Wyo-195,000
Smaller states over represented

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28
Q

How did the electoral college distort Bill Clinton’s result in 1996

A

49% of popular vote

70%+ of ECV

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29
Q

How many out of the seven elections between 1992-2016 have the electoral college distorted the results of

A

5

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30
Q

What two years did a candidate win the popular vote but lost the electoral college votes

A

2000-al gore

2016- Clinton

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31
Q

Al gore and Bushs’ popular vote % in 2000

A

Al gore-48.4%

Bush-48%

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32
Q

What % of the popular vote did Clinton and trump get in 2016

A

Clinton-48.2%

Trump-46.1%

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33
Q

Why is it such a scandal that trump won 2016

A

Clinton got over 3 million votes more than him

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34
Q

Who ran as an independent in 1980

A

John Anderson

6.6% popular vote

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35
Q

Who ran as an independent in 1992

A

Ross Perot

18.9% popular vote

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36
Q

Who ran as a Green Party candidate in 2000

A

Ralph Nader

Won over 3 million votes

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37
Q

Which independent and 3rd party candidates never got any electoral college votes

A

Ross Perot
John Anderson
Ralph Nader

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38
Q

Which state did Perot fail to gain over 10% of the vote in

A

Mississippi
Every other he got over 10%
1992

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39
Q

Who ran as an American Independent candidate in 1968

A

George Wallace
13.5% of popular vote
Less than Perot in 1992

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40
Q

Why did George Wallace as a 3rd party candidate manage to win electoral college votes

A

Support was concentrated in Deep South

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41
Q

How many electoral college votes did George Wallace receive

A

45 over 5 states

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42
Q

What is a rogue elector

A

Elector casts ballot for candidate other than one who won popular vote in their state

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43
Q

How many elections since 1968 have had rogue electors

A

7

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44
Q

Out of the 7 occasions when there was faithless electors how many of these only had one rogue elector each time

A

One

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45
Q

In 2016 how many Clinton electors were dismissed Colorado

A

Three

Refused to vote for designated candidate

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46
Q

In total how many rogue electors were there in 2016

A

5 Clinton

2 Trump

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47
Q

If there were no rogue elector in 2016 how should the result of looked

A

306-232 rather than 304-227

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48
Q

Give an example of when there could have been a president and VP from different parties

A

2000
House could’ve chosen Bush
Senate could’ve chosen Joseph Lieberman (dem)

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49
Q

What are the possible reforms of the electoral college

A

Direct election
Congressional district system
Proportional system

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50
Q

In the last 5 elections how many presidents didn’t win the popular vote

A

Two

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51
Q

What was the headline of the editorial in the New York Times
19 December 2016

A

‘Time To End The Electoral College’

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52
Q

Why was the headline of the New York Times a significant headline for that day

A

19 December- day electors cast their ballot for trump/Clinton

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53
Q

What did the New York Times state about what people think of the electoral college

A

‘Americans would prefer to elect the President by direct popular vote, not filtered through the antiquated mechanism of the Electoral college’

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54
Q

What did the Washington Posts’ national poll say on the matter of electoral college in 2007

A

72% supported popular vote election

23% opposed

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55
Q

What’s the problem with direct election as a form of electoral college reform

A

Multiplicity of canidates

Winner likely to get well below 50% of vote

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56
Q

How could the problem of the winner having less than having 50% of the popular vote be overcome (electoral college reform)

A

Run off between two favoured

Do Americans want another process added?

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57
Q

What would bring about the reform of having direct elections rather than electoral college

A

Constitutional amendment
Need 2/3 states
Not likely, small states ‘wedded’ to electoral college

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58
Q

What is the congressional district system

A

Award 1 ECV to a candidate for each congressional district

2 electoral votes for state winner

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59
Q

In 2016 how did Maine split its electoral college votes

A

Clinton won state so got 3

Trump won presidential vote in congressional district so got one

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60
Q

How would’ve the congressional district system effected the 2012 if it were used in all states

A

Obama would’ve lost to Romney
Would’ve got 264 instead of 332
Romney- 274 instead of 206

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61
Q

Overall what kind of result does congressional district system produce

A

Results would only be marginally different

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62
Q

What kind of result would the congressional district system produce in 2000

A

Less proportionate

Gore would’ve lost by 38 rather than 4

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63
Q

What would the congressional district system do to bushs’ win in 2004

A

Exaggerated winning margin

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64
Q

How many votes did Romney lose to Obama in 2012

A

5 million

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65
Q

How did Obama’s support make him win in 2012

A

Won fewer districts but with bigger margins

Romney won more but smaller margins

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66
Q

Give examples of districts Obama and Romney won

A

Ohio- Obama 4 Romney 12

Pennsylvania-Obama 5 Romney 13

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67
Q

What % of the vote did Obama beat Romney by in Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2012

A

O- 51%-49%

P- 52%-46%

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68
Q

Why would Americans not implement congressional district system

A

Just as flawed as electoral college

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69
Q

How would the proportional system work instead of electoral college

A

Proportional to the popular vote in each state

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70
Q

Would the proportional system abolish the electoral college

A

Yes

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71
Q

What is the benefit of the proportional system as opposed to electoral college

A

Fairer on third parties

People more likely to vote for them

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72
Q

What is the disadvantage of the proportional system

A

Winner less likely to have a majority

Have to have run off election/ go to congress

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73
Q

when do presidential elections occur

A

every 4 years
if dies, vice takes over
in article II constitution

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74
Q

what are the 7 stages of the presidential election process

A 
invisible primary 
primary+caucuses 
choosing VP 
party conventions 
general election campaign 
election day 
electoral college voting
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75
Q

what are some constitutional requirements that presidents need

A

natural born citizen
over 35
residency qualification 14 years

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76
Q

what are the ‘extra constitutional’ requirements a candidate needs to become president (8)

A 
political experience 
major party endorsement 
certain personal characteristics 
ability to raise large sums of money 
effective organisation 
oratorical skills 
sound+relevant policies
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77
Q

how many candidates had political experience in the 2016 race

A

22 candidates
11 state gov
8 senate

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78
Q

who was 1st pres to have no political or military experience

A

Trump

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79
Q

who were some 2016 candidates who did have political experience

A

Rick Perry

Jed Bush

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80
Q

examples of independent candidates who failed due to no major party endorsement

A

George Wallace 1968
Pat Buchanan 200
Gary Johnson 2016

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81
Q

what personal characteristics helps candidates

A

white males
married
3/8 republican candidates had divorced+remarried

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82
Q

candidates who have been able to finance their own campaigns

A

Ross Perot 1992

Steve Forbes 2000

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83
Q

how much did Clinton raise in 2016

A

$700 million

according to open secrets website

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84
Q

who said ‘im no good at television’

A

Walter Mondale
1984
relates to telegenic skills

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85
Q

even though Trump didn’t have clear policies how did he gain support

A

targeted key areas e.g immigration reform

make america great again

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86
Q

invisible primary

A

period between candidates declaring an intention to run for presidency and the first primaries/caucuses

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87
Q

why is the invisible primary important for candidates

A

candidates for party chosen by ordinary voters
chance to get name recognition+money
put together organisation

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88
Q

what is there a correlation between relating to invisible primaries

A

person leading polls at end of invisible primary, most likely to win presidency

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89
Q

stages of invisible primary

A

announcement
televised debate
fundraising

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90
Q

who was the first major candidate to announce his candidacy in 2016

A

Ted Cruz, Texas
23rd March 2015
Republican

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91
Q

how many declared republican candidates were there by the end of july 2015

A

17

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92
Q

when did Hillary Clinton accounce her candidacy for 2016

A

12 April 2015

next three months 4 democrats joined

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93
Q

how many TV debates were there in the invisible primaries for 2016

A

6 August 2015-Feb 2016
7 tv debates between republican candidates
16 in 2011

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94
Q

give an example of a tv debate damaging their campaign

A

invisible primaries 2011
Rick Perry, Texas
forgot 3rd department he would shut down
ended bid in 2012
6th New Hampshire Primary less than 1% vote

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95
Q

example arguing against the use of tv debates

A

ben carson 4 days before 2016 primaries

‘we’re deaing with sound bites as opposed to being able to explain something in depth’

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96
Q

what name is given to the money raised in the invisible primary

A

war chest

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97
Q

how much money did trump raise and donated himself 1 Jan 2015- 31 Jan 2016

A

raised $25.5 mill
donated $18 mill
Ben Carson raised most in this period $57.9- didn’t win single primary

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98
Q

how much had Clinton and Sanders raised by the end of Jan 2016

A

C-$130 mill
S-$96
expected clinton to raise more bc her name recognition+structure

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99
Q

example where invisible primary front runner didn’t win candidacy

A

2004 democrats Howard Dean Vermont, crashed out

Dec 2008 Clinton 15% point lead over Obama(dem) + Giuliani 10% point lead over McCain

100
Q

examples of where invisible front runner did win candidacy

A

Clinton 14 point lead over Sanders

Trump 16 over Cruz

101
Q

how many winners of the invisible primaries went on to be presidential candidate in last 8 elections

A

Repub 7/8 2008 only exception

Dem 5/7 ‘88,’04,’08

102
Q

presidential primary

A

state based election

chooses party’s candidate for presidency

103
Q

presidential caucuses

A

state based series of meetings
choose party’s candidate
attract unrepresentative+lowturnout
held by thinly populated by geographically large states

104
Q

how many caucuses were in 2016

A

republicans 10 states
democratcs 14 states
usually more ideologically extreme voters

105
Q

example to show caucuses attract more ideologically extreme voters

A

Sanders liberal wing democrat
68% Kansas Caucuses
82% Alaska
Averages 66% > Clinton’s 33%

106
Q

what are the two functions of the primaries

A

show popularity of presidential candidates

choose delegates to go to national party conventions

107
Q

super Tuesday

A

Tuesday in Feb/march no. of states coincide primaries+caucuses to gain influence
New Hampshire hold early to give prominence

108
Q

2016 super tuesday

A

1st tuesday march

11 states arranged primary+caucuses to coincide

109
Q

front loading

A

earlier primaries+caucuses to try an increase importance

1980 before end of march=11 states, 2008=42

110
Q

example of a state which has moved its primary

A

california 1980= june 2008=feb
New York April to Feb (same yrs)
5 Feb 2008=55% delegates to both conventions had been chosen

111
Q

2016 front loading

A

decreased
March 2016 32 states voted
NY,PEN,CAL still to vote (big states)

112
Q

closed primary

A

primary which only registered members of the party can vote in that party’s primary

113
Q

open primary

A

any voter can vote in either primary

114
Q

issue with open primaries

A 
2012 Wisconsin republican open primary 
11% voters claimed democrats, among these voters Santorum beat Romney by 20% points 
Romney 44% overall, Santorum 37%
Santorum more right wing than Obama 
see him as an 'easier' opponent
115
Q

why was cross over voting not an issue in 2016

A

both democrat and republican races were competitive

116
Q

proportional primaries

A

delegates awarded to candidates in proportion to votes they get
get any delegates usually minimum threshold 10-15%

117
Q

winner takes all primaries

A

most votes, gets all delegates

118
Q

how many delegates did trump get in the Arizona and New Hampshire Primaries

A

Arizona=58 46.9% vote
New Hampshire=11 35.2% vote
won both primaries

119
Q

who traditionally holds the first caucus

A

Iowa- seen as crucial
2016 Ted Cruz 27%, Trump 24, Rubio 23
put all 3 in serious position to win
Clinton marginally won

120
Q

significance of the Iowa caucus

A

no candidate won presidential nomination without Iowa since 1992 (Bill Clinton came 4th)

121
Q

since 1980 how many republican iowa winners went on to become nominee

A 
2 out of 7 
Bob Dole (1996) and George W Bush (2000)
122
Q

why has the importance of the iowa caucus increased

A 
population growth (29th/50 for growth rate 2010-2016)
6/7 iowa winners became candidate in elections
123
Q

New Hampshire primary

A

used to be said can’t win white house without this one
Clinton, Bush, Obama all lost it
Trump won his
4 consecutive elections ‘92-‘04 front runner didn’t win primary

124
Q

example that not just numbers matter at new hampshire primary

A

Clinton allegations, drug taking+draft dodging vitenam war

still came 2nd 25% vote

125
Q

importance of new hampshire primary

A

if winner=media coverage+money
14th Jan Obama cover story Newsweek
John McCain front cover 4th Feb newsweek

126
Q

Benefits of winning Iowa caucus for Obama

A

$50 mill fund raise 1 month

end of Feb 51-39% lead over clinton

127
Q

incumbent presidents

A

2012 Virg,New York+Florida didn’t bother wi democrat primary
rarely any opposition to incumbent e.g Bush 2004, Obama 2012
Obama 92% total democratic vote

128
Q

opposition to the incumbent

A

1976,1980,1992
‘92 Bush challenged by Pat Buchanan
Buchunan 37% New Hampshire primary

129
Q

problems with opposition to incumbent

A

candidates can draw on weakness from first term
Bush’s failed tax policy ‘read my lips;no new taxes’
Buchunan ‘read our lips; no second term’

130
Q

voter turnout in primaries

A

Mcgovern-Fraser reforms=increased turnout
last pre reform vote= 12 million people (11% VAP)
2016=61 million (29% VAP)
2016 New Hampshire=52% turnout
2016 Louissiana=18%

131
Q

turnout figures for caucus 2016

A

Kansas=5.5%

Iowa=15.7%

132
Q

what are the factors that affect turnout in primaries

A

demography
types of primary
how competitive race was
if nomination had been decided already

133
Q

demography (factors affecting turnout in primaries)

A

better educated+higher income=likely to vote
North Carolina Republican Primary 2016=over half voters college degrees, 1/3 earned $100,00+, 3/4 45+
37% said they are very conservative

134
Q

type of primary (factors affecting turnout in primaries)

A

11 state wi open primaries republican 2012= increase in turnout on 2008
Wisconsin up 92% + Mississippi up 105%
15 state closed primary (republican 2012)= only two increased
Connecticut down 61%
New York down 71%

135
Q

how competitive the nomination race is (turnout in primaries)

A 
competitive in 2016+2008
2016 primary states=28.5% Voter eligable 
2008=30.4%
not competitive= 2012+2004
2012=14.5%
2004=14.7%
136
Q

whether the nomination has been decided or not (turnout in primaries)

A 
early primary=higher turnout 
2008 NY repub primary 5th Feb 
race still undecided-642,894 votes 
2012 (same primary) 24th April
Mitt Romney presumed nominee=189,599 votes
(much less)
137
Q

increased importance of primaries

A

candidates used to be decided by party bosses 50s+60s
had state conventions, only select group went
undemocratic+elitist

138
Q

what triggered the election reforms

A

1968 election
neither repub or dem candidate that won primaries tobecome the presidential nominee
VP Hubert Humphrey won democrat nomination-hadn’t entered any primaries

139
Q

Mcgovern Fraser Commission

A

established by democratic party 1968

recommended reforms to nomination process

140
Q

what are the strengths of the new nomination process post 1868 (advantages of primaries)

A

increased participation
increased choice
open to outsiders
gruelling race

141
Q

weaknesses with the new nomination process (disadvantages of primaries)

A 
voter apathy+boredom 
unrepresentative 
too long
expensive 
dominated by media 
become personal battles 
lack of peer review 
super delegates
142
Q

increased participation (strength of new nomination process)

A

1968 11.7 million people
1988 35 million
2016 61 million

143
Q

increased choice (strength of new nomination process)

A

1968 5 candidates

2016 22 candidates

144
Q

open to outsiders (strength of new nomination process)

A

Carter(76) Clinton (92) Obama (08) didnt initially have national reputation
Trump 2016

145
Q

gruelling race (strength of new nomination process)

A

demanding test for demanding job

92 Tsongas fought back from cancer, people worried about physical resilience for presidency

146
Q

Frank Bruni 2016 New York Times writing about nomination process (weakness of nomination process)

A

American Voters are displeased with the canidates they’ve been given

147
Q

voter apathy and boredom in primaries (weakness of nomination process)

A

‘04 17.2% when Bush running for re-election

even when not incumbent 2000= 19% turnout

148
Q

voters are unrepresentative of the voting age population

A

2012 Ron Paul libertarian republican won at least 10% vote in 40 primaries+caucuses
caucuses av=21%
primary av=12%

149
Q

process is too long

(weakness of nomination process)

A

1960 Kennedy 66 days before 1st primary
68 Nixon 40 days before
72 Mcgovern 414 days before
2016 Cruz 11 months before

150
Q

process is very expensive (weakness of nomination process)

A

june 2016 Clinton totalled $275 mill
Sanders (opponent) $235 mill
Trump+Cruz just over $90 mill each by June 2016

151
Q

process is too dominated by the media (weakness of nomination process)

A

intra-party tv debates
2016 pre primary debates influenced how nomination cycle developed
poll ratings rise+fall depending on debate

152
Q

primaries can develop into bitter personal battles (weakness of nomination process)

A

McCain TV commercial accusing Bush as lying, likening Clinton
Bush; ‘that’s the lowest you can get’

153
Q

lack of peer review (weakness of nomination process)

A

used to be selected by professional politicians
knew what qualities were needed
test of campaign rather than qualities ‘to govern a democracy requires much more’ columnist David Broder
Jeane Jikpatrick professional politicians ‘uniquely qualified’

154
Q

super delegates (weakness of nomination process)

A

Clinton nor Obama got gained absolute majority of delegate votes in primary+caucuses
need 2,210 to win nomination

155
Q

super delegate

A

automatically appointed as uncommitted delegates to democratic national party convention
elected politician or party official

156
Q

what were some of David Atkins points in his five point plan to reform the nomination process (2016)

A

no caucuses
all open primaries (voters not allied wi a party more likely to vote)
rotate order of primaries

157
Q

when is the vice presidential candidate announced

A

before party convention

used to be at it, Walter Mondale broke tradition ‘84

158
Q

when were the 2016 running mates announced

A

Mike Pence

Tim Kaine 3 days before their conventions

159
Q

what are the three strategies for choosing VPs

A

balanced ticket
potential in gov
party unity

160
Q

balanced ticket (choosing the VP)

A

2008
Biden 65 balanced Obama’s 47
Biden served 36 years Obama >4 years

161
Q

balanced ticket

A

paring of president and vice who will attract support for different reasons
making broadest appeal to voters

162
Q

potential in gov (choosing VP)

A

what will they bring to white house not campaign
Bush choosing Cheney (had been white house chief of staff+secretary of defence) 2000
Bush no washington experience
why Trump chose Pence

163
Q

party unity (choosing VP)

A

choose former rival for running mate
Reagan chose Bush 1980
rarely done, usually have opposing views

164
Q

National party convention

A

meeting every 4 years
two major parties select president+vice candidates
decide party platform
lasts 4 days, july,august or september

165
Q

where were the 2016 national conventions

A

Repub-Cleveland, Ohio 18-21st july

Dem-Philadelphia 25-28th july

166
Q

what are the formal functions of national party conventions

A

choosing presidential candidate
choosing vice
deciding party platform

167
Q

what are the informal functions of national party conventions

A

promoting party unity
enthusing party faithful
enthusing ordinary voters

168
Q

how many delegates were needed to win candidacy in 2016

A

Trump- 2,472 delegates, he needed 1,237
Clinton- 4,763 delegates, she needed 2,382
party confirms rather than chooses, most turn up as committed delegates

169
Q

which year was there doubt about the candidate at a national party convention

A

republican 1976
Gerald Ford 1,187 votes
Reagan 1,070
if 60 delegates switched Reagan would’ve won

170
Q

brokered convention

A

no candidate gets enough delegates during primaries and caucuses to have an absolute majority on first ballot
balloting continues till one does
during these ballots delegates can vote for whoever

171
Q

How common are brokered conventions

A

1892-1952=8/16
1956-2016=0/16
decreases importance of conventions

172
Q

when was a running mate last announced at a convention

A

republican 1988

173
Q

deciding party platform (national party conventions)

A

document wi policies candidate will do if president
put together=Platform committee
holds hearings around country gather opinions helpwi draft

174
Q

examples of hearings for deciding party platforms

A

2008 democrats over 1,600 listening sessions, 30,000 participants
republicans website ‘share your thoughts, participate in polls and communicate directly with the policy-makers who will be shaping the party’s agenda’

175
Q

2016 contentious party platform debates

A

republican-‘staunchly conservative’ platform on homosexuality, same sex marriage+transgender issues

176
Q

2016 democrat platform committee

A

struggle between clinton+sanders supporters
6 clinton+5 sanders+ 4 appointed by democrat national committee
platform included federal minimum wage increase $15, support for wall street reform

177
Q

Is the party platform important

A

little reference made to it
not always much substance (2016)
‘we believe in the constitution as our founding document’
‘americans have earned+deserve a strong and healthy economy’

178
Q

promoting party unity (informal function of party conventions) (2016 example)

A

bitter personal battles during campaign-need to be healed
Sanders speech 2016 ‘I am proud to stand with her tonight’
Romney+Bush didn’t go-didn’t support Trump
Cruz ‘vote your conscience’ not ‘vote for Trump’

179
Q

enthusing party faithful (informal functions of party convention)

A

organise meetings, make phone calls, transport voters to polls
2016 Michelle Obama Speech bought delegates to their feet
inspired them to go back+work for Clinton

180
Q

enthusing ordinary voters (informal function of party convention)

A

not in voting hall, done through TV
acceptance speeches important as voters tune in
people payed little attention to race up until now
2016- Trump painted negative pic/ Clinton positive America

181
Q

post convention bounce (informal function of party convention)

A 
opinion polls immediately after convention 
pre convention poll difference=bounce 
Trumps bounce 1% 
av for challenging party over 6% 
incumbement= 6%
182
Q

are post convention bounces significant

A

Larry Sabato university Virginia said post convention bounce only signals outcome of election half of the time
‘you could flip a coin and be about as predictive’

183
Q

even though declining, why are party conventions important

A

when voters start to tune in

Professor Cal Jillson ‘that what makes the convention critically important’

184
Q

quote to exemplify how important money is in the general election campaign

A

Mark Hanna Republican political operative
‘there are two things that are important in politics; the first thing is money, and i can’t remember what the second one is’

185
Q

how were campaign finance rules changed (general election campaign)

A

Federal Election Campaign act 1974
direct result of watergate
limited contributions that could be given
law found loopholes

186
Q

soft money

A

money donated to political parties over candidates to avoid campaign finance limitations
parties spend the money on campaign activities

187
Q

matching funds

A

federal money administered by federal election commission, given to candidates who met criteria and agreed to limitations

188
Q

2008 matching funds

A

Obama didn’t take them- free from raising+spending limitations
McCain (REP) took $84 mill matching funds
critical for Obama’s win

189
Q

2012 matching funds

A

neither Romney or Obama took them
1st time both major candidates opted out
2014 Obama signed legislation to end public finance of parties national conventions

190
Q

Bipartisan Campaign reform act

A

national party committees banned from raising+spending soft money
increased individual limits
banned foreign contributions

191
Q

what does PACs stand for

A

political action committee

192
Q

political action committee (general election campaign)

A

raised limited amount of money and spends it to elect or defeat a particular candidate

193
Q

Super PAC (general election campaign)

A

political committee makes independent expenditures but doesn’t contribute to candidates
accept unlimited contributions

194
Q

which three super PACs were dominant during the 2016 election

A

priorities USA action $192 to Clinton

Trump= Rebuilding America now $22.6 million + Our principles PAC $19 million

195
Q

hybrid PACs 2016 election

A

correct the record $10 million Clinton

Great America PAC $28 million Trump

196
Q

source of finance 2016 election

A

Clinton=71% individ donations, 3/4 big donors, 90% outside group money from priorities USA action
Trump=less than 50% from individuals, 2/3 small donors

197
Q

where does the money go in election campaigns

A

organisation
campaigning
media

198
Q

organisation (campaign finance)

A

Clinton=489 field offices
Trump=179 field offices
(offices spread through country)
Get out there and vote (GOTV) campaign people go door to door get people to vote
2016 34 states allow no excuse early voting

199
Q

campaigning (campaign finance)

A

costs venue,travel,hotel
internal polling
Trump saw movement toward him in michigan so went there last minute to campaign
10,000/ 4.5 mill votes `

200
Q

media (campaign finance)

A

crucial social media spending for trump toward end of campaign e.g negative ads at clinton in florida +blue wall states. took 5 off her which thought she’d win

201
Q

layout of tv debates

A

3 90 mins between 2 major candi
1 90 min vp canidates
Carter+Reagan debate 1980 only clear example of debate being significant effect on final result

202
Q

critisisms in Obama’s TV debate 2012

A

Joe Klein Times magazine ‘one of the most inept performances’
Gallup poll= 72% thought Romney won 20% Obama

203
Q

evidence showing tv debates aren’t that important

A

Clinton out performed trump 2016

polls moved marginally+she still lost

204
Q

what are the four rules of thumb about TV debates

A

style over substance
verbal gaffes are costly
good sound bites help
they’re harder for incumbents

205
Q

style is more important than substance (tv debates rule of thumb)

A

important how you say things
Trump coming across as rude, one liners saying ‘wrong’
2000 Bush sighing and rolling his eyes

206
Q

verbal gaffes can be costly (tv debates rule of thumb)

A

1980- Carter talking to daughter about nuclear weapons

2016- Trump wouldn’t say if he’d respect result at end of 3rd debate (but didnt worry voters)

207
Q

good sound bites are helpful (tv debates rule of thumb)

A

2012 Obama to Romney

he favours ‘foreign policy of 1980s,social policy 1950s + economic policy of 1920s’

208
Q

debates are more difficult for incumbents (tv debates rule of thumb) (Romeny v Obama)

A

higher expectation e.g Obama 2012
do less debates rusty-Obama’s last one 2008
2012 Romney done 19 wi republican candidates

209
Q

october surprise

A

occurs late in campaign at disadvantage of a candidate, leaving them no time to recover before election

210
Q

example of an october surprise

A

2016 re-opening case about Clinton’s state department emails

211
Q

when is election day

A

tuesday after first monday in novemeber
2016 47 mill did early voting
32mill in 2012

212
Q

voter turnout

A

peak=67% 1960
2008=62.3%
2016=54%

213
Q

swing states

A

ohio,florida+virginia

214
Q

the incumbency factor

A

1796-31 pres have run for re-election
22(71%) won
H.W Bush, Ford+ Carter defeated for re-election (only 3 modern day all had failing economies)
incumbents don’t waste time+money in primaries

215
Q

timing of congressional elections

A

house- 2 years
senate-6 years
1/3 senate up for re-election every 2 years
midterms

216
Q

constitutional requirements (congressional elections)

A

house= 25yrs, citizen 7 yrs+resident of state they;re repping (locality rule)
senate=30yrs, citizen 9

217
Q

the nomination process (congressional elections)

A

secure nomination from party
congressional primary if challenged
only 8 incumbents defeated since ‘82

218
Q

how many members of the house were defeated in congressional primaries in 2012

A

13

BUT every 2 yrs 400 members seek re-election average 4-5 defeats per cycle

219
Q

5 congressional election trends

A 
power of incumbency 
coaittail effect is limited 
split ticket voting is declining 
fewer competitive districts 
presidents party tends to lose seats
220
Q

the power of incumbency in congressional elections

A

2016
house 95% re-election rate
sentate 92% re-election rate
blip in early 90s voters wanted to get rid of the ‘bums’

221
Q

re-election rate range between 2000-2016

A 
house= lowest 85.4% (2010) high 97.8% (2000) 
senate= lowest 79.3% (2006) high 91.6% (2004)
222
Q

why are there such high rates of re-election in congress

A 
incumbent can provide services to constituents (favourable)
incumbent name recognition 
fundraising advantage (incumbents raised over 7X more than challengers in 2016)
223
Q

average amount raised by an incumbent and challenger in 2016 congressional elections

A

incu=$12.8million

chall=1.8 million

224
Q

coattails effect

A

extremely popular candidate at top of ticket, carries candidates for lower offices with them
2016 Trump helped Pat Toomey (Pen) Richard Burr (NC) Ron Johnson (WISC)

225
Q

Trumps coattails

A

short, non existent

16/21 republican senate candidates won higher share of vote in their state then Donald Trump

226
Q

split ticket voting

A

vote for candidate of two or more parties from different offices at same election

227
Q

examples of split ticket voting

A

Arkansas, colarado, nevada bush republican pres but democrat to senate
New ham+Pen- John Kerry pres, repub to senate

228
Q

whats happening to split ticket voting

A

declining

2016 all 34 states voted same way in pres+senate races

229
Q

split districts

A

vote for different parties for house+pres

2016 only 23 districts elected repub to house but voted hillary for pres

230
Q

most exaggerated split ticket in 2016

A

7th district minnesota
62% trump
democrat congressman Collin Peterson 53% vote

231
Q

split senate voting (2 senates one from each party)

A

99=30 states split senate vote
2017=12
38 states don’t have ssv

232
Q

no. of competitive districts 2016

A

31 (1 in every 4)

233
Q

significance of less competitve districts

A

-harder for control of house to change hands
2016 dems needed 30 gain, only 43 were competitive (gained 6 seats)
-representative of safe districts more likely to vote in line with party (Sandford Bishop won 61% vote so logical to support democrat line)
Darrell Issa won by 5,000votes, need to take into account both sides

234
Q

evidence to show presidents party tends to lose seats in midterms

A

6 midterms 1994-2014

lost an av of 25 house seats+4/5 senate seats

235
Q

why does the president lose seats in the midterms

A

expressing disapointment with presidents previous term in office
2006 Bush’s failure to conclude military operations in iraq successfully

236
Q

proposition or initiative

A

citizens of a state place proposed law on state ballot (some states can also be constiutional amendments)

237
Q

examples of propositions

A

Marijuana legalisation 2016
approved;Nevada, california+maine
defeated;arizona
Minimum wage increase, gun laws

238
Q

how many states have a proposition process

A

24

239
Q

difference between direct and indirect proposition

A

direct= if they qualify go directly to ballot

indirect=state legislature decides, can reject or submit a different ballot or do nothing

240
Q

general rules of propositions

A

filed with designated state official
formal title
circulated to gain required n0. of signatures

241
Q

no. of signatures required for a proposition

A

alaska=10% total votes cast

cal= 5%

242
Q

no. referendums in 2012

A

115 state wide

all can be on different issues e.g tax or constitution

243
Q

popular referendum

A

if state passes law that people don’t like
can ask to have referendum on it
law doesn’t take effect until rederendum is done

244
Q

recall elections

A

voters in a state can remove elected official from office before term is up
increase democratic accountability
allows ‘buyers regret’

245
Q

how many recall elections have there been

A

3

1921, 2003, 2012

246
Q

2012 recall election

A

recall of Republican Scott Walker
beat apponent Tom Barret 53%-46%
triggered by changes over pension schemes and limiting collective bargaining rights of trade unions

U.S Politics (OB) (2 decks)

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