Marshall TIA Flashcards
3 Sources of Risk, modeled in Assessing Risk Margins
*independent risk
*internal systemic risk
*external systemic risk
What are the subrisks of independent risk?
*parameter risk
*process risk
What are the subrisks of internal systemic risk?
*specification error
*parameter selection error
*data error
What are the subrisks of external systemic risk?
*economic & social risks
*legislative, political, & claim inflation risks
*claim management process change risk
*expense risk
*event risk
*latent claim risk
*recovery risk
Formula for Independent CoV
phi^2 = Sum(phi_i * w_i)^2
Formula for Internal Risk CoV
phi^2 = (phi * w) * Sum(phi * w)^T
^T = transpose
Formula for Risk Margin
mu * phi * Z_a
Z_75% = 0.67
Formula for Total Company CoV
phi^2 = phi^2_independent + phi^2_internal + phi^2_external
excel formula: SQRT(SUMSQ(3 components))