Decision Analysis 11: Value of Information

Question 1

How to Avoid Biases?
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– Biases are natural but we can avoid them through careful reasoning deliberation
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– From people who may not always agree with you or who may represent different interests
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– Recent events may only be a small biased sample
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– To avoid overconfidence bias

Answer 1

Don’t make impulsive decisions

Seek alternative opinions

Consider a longer horizon rather than only focusing on the most recent observations/data

Consider and assess pessimistic scenarios