Business Cycle and AE model Flashcards
What is the Business Cycle?
a macroeconomic model which illustrates the pattern of economic activity overtime
Three economic indicators and describe?
Leading: considered to point toward future events eg share prices, housing
Co incident: occurs in real time, snapshot of current state of economy eg GDP, ue rates
Lagging: confirm or validate past economic trends, eg personal income, retail sales
What two trends does the business cycle identify in econ activity?
- the economy experiences long term growth over time. this is indicated by the positive slope of the long -term growth trend
- the pattern of the economy is cyclical in nature as the model illustrates four phases
What are the four phases of the business cycle?
Expansion
Peak
Contraction
Trough
7 Characteristics of expansion phase
- increase in labour/wages
- increase in consumer spending
- 3 aggregates increases
- econ growth increases (rising GDP)
- cyclical UE decreases -> structural UE increases
- demand pull inflation increases
- IR increase
8 Characteristics of contraction phase
- three aggregates decrease
- economic growth decreases (falling GDP)
- cyclical UE increases
- demand pull inflation decreases
- IR decreases
- less demand = less prod of g/s
- productive input falls
- h/h income falls - spending falls
6 Characteristics of trough phase
- marks start of new growth period
- three agreggates reach its lowest point ie bottoming out
- economic growth reaches its lowest point (real GDP)
- cyclical ue is high
- demand pull inflation increases
- IR is low
5 Characteristics of peak phase
- three agreggates reach its lowest point ie bottoming out
-econ growth reaches its highest point(high GDP) - cyclical ue is low- structural ue is high
- demand pull inflation increases
- IR are high
5 Recent economic cycles in aus economy in 2014-19
- slow growth
- low inflation
- UE fell from 6.2% in 2014 to 5.1% in 2019
- low wage growth
- mining investment down
7 Recent economic cycles in aus economy in 2020-22
due to pandemic:
- supply chain interruptions
- businesses shut down
- fall in consumption; increase in savings rate
- ukraine war increased econ uncertainty
- flooding in east aus
- rapid rise In inflation 2022- due to higher prices for food and energy
- upward pressure on IR
2 Recent economic cycles in aus economy in 2023-25
- inflation should moderate
- demand for commodity may prevent downturn in aus
2 Causes of business cycle flunctuations
Endogenous cycles: they have an internal cause
- therefore some types of spending In the economy are likely to rise and fall themselves overtime
Exogenous cycles: outside influence
can be;
- positive(increase in econ aactiivty) eg mining boom
- negative (decrease in econ activity) eg covid 19 pandemic
- random (occurs spontaneously) eg natural disasters/supply shocks
What is Aggregate expenditure?
is the sum of all expenditure on final goods and services undertaken in the economy during a specific time period
What are the 4 major components of AE
- consumption expenditure
- private sector investment
- government expenditure
- net exports
How much does consumption expenditue account for and what it consists of
- largest component of AE (53%)
- consists of:
- expenditure on non-durable goods
- expenditure on durable goods
- expenditure on services
What is expenditure on non-durable goods, examples, and how much it accounts for
- consumed shortly after purchase
- eg food,drink,fuel,clothing
- could be regarded as essential spending
- accounting for abt 35% of total consumption expenditure
What is expenditure on durable goods, examples and how much it accounts for
- last a longer period of time
- eg white goods(fridges,ovens), furniture, motor vehicles
- often discretionary spending (can be postponed or brought forward)
- accounts for 15% of consumption exp
What is expenditure on services, examples and how much it accounts for
-intangible and provide transitory satisfaction of want
- eg education, transport, health
- accounts for 50% of consumption exp
- some essential, some discretionary
What is private sector investment, how much does it account for and what it consists of
- spending on new captial goods and additions to inventories
- spending in national accounts
- accounts for 18% of ae
- consists of:
- business investment: privately funded business spending on capital goods used in production - equipment , machinery, buildings
- housing investment: private expenditure on new hosuin
- inventories - unsold goods, sometimes described as ‘stock’
What is the government expenditure, how much it accounts for what what is it made up of, examples
accounts for 27% of ae
made up of:
- current spending (G1)
- finances business of govt,
-eg wages, salaries, purchasing g/s
- capital spending (G2)
- spending on public infrastructure such as power, and water supply, school, roads
- provide for future needs