5.5 - Predicting future climates

Question 1

what is an extrapolation?

Answer 1

the extension of a line on a graph, past recorded data

Question 2

what are assumptions made when extrapolating?

Answer 2

we have enough data to establish the trend accurately and that present trends continue

Question 3

why may past trends not continue?

Answer 3

steps may be taken to change certain factors, increasing of living standards, efficiency of engines etc.

Question 4

what factors, other than carbon dioxide, are important in determining climate change?

Answer 4

other greenhouse gases, aerosols, degree of reflection, ice and snow cover, cloud cover and the sun’s radiation

Question 5

why may predictions made by climate models be incorrect?

Answer 5

limited data, limited knowledge of climate system, limitations of computing, failure to include all factors and changing trends

Question 6

why do some climate models predict a colder UK?

Answer 6

the north Atlantic drift could break down and no longer bring warm water from the Gulf of Mexico