3RD EXAM (RISK MANAGEMENT) Flashcards
The process of MEASURING OR ASSESING RISK and
developing strategies to manage it.
Risk Management
Means that for every decision to make there is ONLY ONE EVENT AND THEREFORE ONLY A SINGLE OUTCOME for each action.
Decision Making under Certainty
There is 100% chance of occurrence; hence, the probability is 1.0.
Decision Making under Certainty
The probability of occurrence maybe known to the decision maker because of mathematical proofs and historical evidence; otherwise, the decision maker may resort to subjective assignment of probabilities.
Decision Making under Uncertainty
Involves SEVERAL EVENTS FOR EACH ACTION with its probability of occurrence.
Decision Making under Uncertainty
Are HELPFUL TOOLS FOR IDENTIFYING THE BEST SOLUTION given several decision choices and future conditions that involve risk.
Payoff (decision) tables
Provides a method for MATHEMATICALLY EXPRESSING DOUBT or assurance about the occurrence of a chance event.
Probability
VALUE ASSIGNED to different outcomes from a decision which may be positive or negative
Payoff
It presents the
outcomes ____________ of specific decisions when certain states of nature (events not
within the control of the decision maker) occur.
Payoff
It is a DIAGRAM THAT SHOWS THE SEVERAL DECISIONS OR ACTS and the possible consequences called events of each act.
Decision tree
Is the knowledge that a FUTURE STATE OF NATURE WILL OCCUR WITH CERTAINTY, being sure of what will occur in the future.
Perfect information
Describes how SENSITIVE THE LINEAR PROGRAMMING optimal
solution is to a change in any one number.
Sensitivity analysis
Is a TECHNIQUE FOR EXPERIMENTING with logical and mathematical
models using a computer
Simulation
Is an ANALYTICAL TOOL used in a problem in which a series of
decision has to be made at various time intervals, with EACH DECISION INFLUENCED BY THE INFORMATION THAT IS AVAILABLE at the time it is made.
Decision tree
It is a SYSTEMATIC APPROACH in identifying, analyzing and
controlling areas with a potential for causing unwanted change.
Risk Management
According to the ____________________________ , risk
management is the IDENTIFICATION, ASSESSMENT AND PRIORITIZATION OF RISKS followed by
a coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor and
control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events and to MAXIMIZE THE REALIZATION OF OPPORTUNITIES.
International Organization of Standardization (ISO 3100)
6 Basic principles of risk management
“VIDIUS”
-Create VALUE
- Be an INTEGRAL part of the organizational processes and decision-making
-.Be DYNAMIC, iterative, transparent, tailorable, and responsive to change
-Create capability for continuous IMPROVEMENT
- Address UNCERTAINTY and assumptions
-Be SYSTEMATIC, structured, and continually or periodically reassessed.
3 Risk Management Process
“RIE”
-Establishing the context
-Identification of potential risks
-Risk Management Process